LIFORECAST

I know a lot of the people actually sometimes prefer that over the actual parade. Yes, that was really special tomorrow. The parade will still be fun but it's gonna be wet. So if you guys are going, just make sure you have layers and of course some kind of rain gear and you'll be fine. But we are looking at that wet weather. It is dry outside right now, but clouds are moving in, showers are on our doorstep. So tomorrow morning at the parade, 7 a.m. showers move in nine o'clock to one o'clock. A moderate, maybe even briefly, heavy rain around temps in the forties from your fifties. So it does feel chilly and damp. You see the wet weather arriving in the morning as early as about 5 to 6 a.m. We have a ton of turkey trots on Long Island tomorrow as well. One in Garden City, Hampton Bays, Blue Point, Oyster Bay, uh Massapequa. So you are going to be running through some rain, uh will feel nice and cool and then the showers will taper off later in the afternoon. So after 3 to 4 o'clock, the rain moves out still kind of cloudy, it gets breezy and, uh, skies will clear out overnight. The weather is much better on Friday will be bright and sunny, but we have a cold stretch ahead and then it's going to last through the weekend and into next week. If you look at our high temperatures, you see, we are going down Saturday, Sunday highs only in the low forties. That's about 10 degrees below normal. We had a beautiful sky today with some of the clouds coming in. This is a shot from Anne Murray in Pathos. Thanks for sending your pictures in and I hope you guys all have a wonderful Thanksgiving, brighter weather in store for us in another dry stretch. Saturday, Sunday through next week. It's cold. It's going to feel more like winter, but it will be nice with mostly sunny skies.

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Just like last winter, expect a warm winter overall. Temperatures will run about two degrees above average from December through February. 

Winter Weather

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Winter Weather Outlook: How will this upcoming winter shape up?

AllanNosoffWinterOulookDAYTHREE3

It is finally time for our winter outlook for 2024 and 2025. I'm storm watch team meteorologist Sala Nose, and it is going to be a warm winter overall, especially in New York City where it's gonna run about two degrees above average. And that includes some cold shots. That's gonna be really important because if we can time cold with a storm that will produce snow. Overall, I expect precipitation be near average based on what we've seen with the weak La Nina as well as the analogs that I crunched earlier about 11 inches in total for December through February. But how about snowfall? Unfortunately, for snow lovers, it's another below average winter, but better than last year, which only had single digit inches of snow. I'm expecting about 21 inches of snow across New York City and this is how it shapes up across the entire tri state area. About 18 to 24 inches along I 78 including the city, less as you get to the coast because there will be mixing concerns a lot of the time and more rain so than snow north and west, of course, is where you'll find the higher totals. But in some of the higher elevations of the Hudson Valley usually get about 70 80 90 inches of snow. I don't expect that much, but at least it'll be an improvement for ski country compared to last winter. So that's where we stand now. And if you're a fan of snow or not, you can check out the full winter outlook on news, twelve.com following us on news, 12 social pages as well as mine and let us know if you're a fan of winter or not. I'm Star watch team meteorologist, Alan Nose.

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If you’re heading to the parade, grab a winter coat, umbrella and rain boots.

Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade

Storm Watch: Will the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade be a washout? 

HOPE THANKSGIVING 1126

I meteorologist. Hope with your Thanksgiving parade forecast, we're only two days away until Thanksgiving. A lot of traveling. A lot of people getting excited for the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade. But how's the weather looking as of right now? We're forecasting gusty winds between 15 to 20 MPH and the parade starts around 830. So the threshold for the balloons not to go up is if it exceeds 34. So it's something that will continue to monitor as we get through the next couple of days. But a breezy feel. But how are the temperatures? How's the sky conditions looking? Unfortunately, you will need your umbrellas. If you're heading there. And the parade route starts on 77 street in Central Park West. You'll be dodging a few raindrops, some light showers, chilly temperatures in the mid forties. Make sure that you have that heavier jacket on. Even by the end of the parade, the rain can start picking up in intensity. It's something that you need to keep in mind if you're heading to the parade. A meteorologist, hope which your foras happy Thanksgiving. All right.

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Fall 2024 in the tri-state area has been one of the warmest on record and one of the driest.

Winter Weather Outlook: How analyzing previous patterns helps forecast winter weather

AllanNosoffWinterOulookDAYTWO2

I'm Storm Watch team, meteorologist Sala Nose and we looked at El Nino, La Nina, how that could impact our winter ahead. But one of the other keys is actually looking to the past at something known as analogs, which are previous years with similar weather patterns to the one we're dealing with this year. And out of all the data at New York City Central Park, I found 23 different years between 1869 and 2023 with similar conditions to what we're dealing with this fall, which include a very warm fall well above average temperatures. One of the driest falls on record way below average rainfall and a weak La Nina very weak overall. And these three keys added all together with all of our data resulted in this month by month, about average when it comes to snowfall in December, a little bit below average in January and quite a bit below average in February. So what does this mean overall for a potential winter outlook below average snowfall? Sure. But at least it's snowier than last winter, which was such a dud usually February is the snowiest month for us, but this time. Looks like January will be. Some analogs had huge snowstorms. Others did not at all. So, it all depends on that big storm and we'll have that full winter outlook right here tomorrow.

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To determine if we are in an El Niño or La Niña, meteorologists look to the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Winter Weather Outlook: How El Niño or La Niña affect weather patterns in the tri-state area

AllanNosoffWinterOulookDAYONE1

I'm Storm watch team, meteorologist Alan Nose and it's that time of year, winter is almost upon us. But will we see a lot of snow, a lot of rain or a whole lot of nothing? And one of the keys to find out just how our winter will be impacted is by looking at the Pacific Ocean, the largest ocean with the largest impact on weather patterns all across the world, particularly down towards the equator where we're tracking these four areas, Ninos, one through four. And that sounds familiar. It's because, well, El Nino or La Nina, it's all about the water temperatures at the surface and it all depends on just how warm or just how cold. And if it's a warmer than average water, that means it's an El Nino impacting, of course, pressure patterns all around the world in our area. If it's the opposite, it's a La Nina. So what are we dealing with right now? More like a la nada? There's a mix of both above average and below average water temperatures overall, just slightly below average. So you could call it a weak La Nina. But what kind of impact will that have on our winter ahead. You want to stay tuned right here for that full winter outlook on news. 12.

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